Is This the End of the Democratic Party?

For the past few months, I have considered writing an article entitled “Is this the end of the Democratic Party?”

Over the course of a few months, the argument of this article took shape: the Democrats were getting increasingly desperate over the polls and it didn’t look as though they’d take back control of the Senate.

With a Supreme Court pick on the line, and potentially another one or two coming up, losing would swing the legislative, executive and judicial branches against the Dems.

However, so long as they could use the executive to nominate progressive justices and issue educative orders and vetoes to stay repeals of their big accomplishments like Obamacare, they could put off any serious efforts to regain the upper hand in congress.

However, even assuming Clinton won the election, it was unclear who would run after her. As much as they like Tim Kaine, very few progressives would argue that he is a strong, charismatic candidate. So they would be in the position, assuming Clinton, as unpopular as she is, won election and reelection, of hoping another dark horse candidate galloped onto the scene.

But as much as I’d like to take credit for predicting present events, the scenario I envisioned was a Clinton victory, which still may have been good for the Republicans, who would have retained control in congress and would be free to reevaluate their platform for a bid against Clinton, an already unpopular candidate going into office.

There are not really any changes I would make to this argument now, knowing how the election turned out. I would, however, like to add a few paragraphs.

First, it remains unclear how well Trump and the Republicans in congress will play together. Some of the items on Trump’s plan for the first hundred days– imposing term limits on congress; lifetime bans on White House and congressional officials lobbying for foreign powers– while interesting ideas, are unlikely to make some of the Republicans happy.

Second, some of the biggest promises politicians make, the promises that win them social capital, are the ones they never accomplish. Think: closing Guantanamo (Obama), or “Read my lips: ‘no new taxes'” (Bush Sr.)

For those asking what’s next?: for now it is enough to notice the repeal Obamacare commercials began running before the election even ended.

It is time for the left to drop its elitist name calling, and its disdain for middle America. If he left wants to be relevant, it should use these years to stoke dissent with the GOP and rethink its positions and strategies.

My First Voting Experience

Inspired by Evan Puschak’s comments on his first voting experience, I thought I’d share my own.

The story of my first vote. Thanks @hankgreen for tagging me. I tag @mikerugnetta & @CaseyNeistat. #firstvote16 https://t.co/giJQppF1rX pic.twitter.com/ZWJLfixOHg

— Evan Puschak (@TheeNerdwriter) September 30, 2016

My experience was a strange mix of education, campaigning and hypocrisy.

It was the 2012 election. I was a student at the time. I found myself volunteering for the Tim Kaine senate campaign, and, eventually, the Barack Obama reelection campaign. I cast votes, however, for Tim Kaine and Jill Stein (Green Party).

I won’t offer an apologia. I think in politics, one has to allow for change. When the facts change, as John Maynard Keynes was fond of saying, my opinions follow. (And your opinions?)

Anyways, my opinion was then, and remains now, that third party voting is not wasting a vote so much as establishing a record of discontent. One of the best probable outcomes of this election cycle would be one of the third parties reaching five percent of the vote, the established threshold for federal campaign grants. This funding could provide the boost needed to get a third party candidate on ballots in all fifty states, which may in turn pave the way towards a more serious third party alternative in the next few election cycles.

In a representative system, voting for someone is the equivalent of, explicitly or tacitly, acknowledging them as your political proponent.

Ideally: voting is a form of direct process learning, the more you vote the better you get at identifying and voting for the candidate who will speak for your interests. However, mitigating factors intervene, notably: the fact voting is done with imbalanced information (if not an outright absence of information), as well as general confusion about interests. And so on.

So I am not optimistic about the prospects of learning through voting, or even the prospects of most people correctly identifying the connection between voting and policy, which, after all, takes a lot of time and effort and specialized knowledge.

Moreover, there are very interesting arguments to be made that voting is not always in your best interests, or in the best interests of the country. (Unfortunately, I don’t have the time to restate or review them here. However, I will happily do so in a later post if asked.)

Despite all that, I think voting can send a cultural message. This is why, in part, I think voting along your perceived interests is worthwhile. Though not necessarily, I reiterate, a responsibility.

But if you’re convinced it’s your civic duty to vote, or that you know enough about policy and politics to cast an intelligent ballot, then by all means.

 

Notes from middleland: Iowa and the Republicans No. 2 Guns, Guts, Gory

Daniel Mollenkamp

AKRON — Over the weekend, several Republicans made their way to Hole ‘N the Wall Lodge, in northwest Iowa, for the eighth annual “Bud Day” pheasant hunt hosted by Congressman Steve King (R-IA).

The hunt raises money for King’s campaign fund.

The scene might have been ripped from an NRA advertising campaign. Pheasants, affectionately called “ringnecks” by enthusiastic hunters, flittered across the sky. Yells of “rooster!” and sporadic gunfire followed.

King invites officials to each year’s hunt, which occurs on the opening weekend of hunting season, and serves as a memorial for the deceased Col. Bud Day. This year Rep. Jeff Duncan (R-SC) and former congressmen Gil Gutknecht and Tom Tancredo were among the rank.

Presidential hopefuls Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rick Santorum and Mike Huckabee also made appearances, hoping to “bag” King’s so far elusive endorsement.

Though it was billed as a hunt (singular), there appeared to be four or five hunts simultaneously in action: hunters bagged pheasants, candidates tried to shore up King’s endorsement and King bagged campaign donations. All the while, media sought information and pictures on all of the above.

Journalists from outlets as ecumenically situated as the Wall Street Journal, the National Review, Fox News, the Sioux City Journal, CNN and PBS appeared to slog through the untilled fields and observe the candidates.

King, who has been described somewhat playfully as Iowa’s “Kingmaker,” did not endorse in 2012, but has indicated he is prepared to do so in the present caucus cycle.

Many expect he will endorse Cruz, who has attended previous hunts and has been endorsed by state senator Bill Anderson, King’s advisor. Moreover, King’s son and campaign manager Jeff King is heading a super PAC that supports Cruz. However, when asked about any impending endorsement, King was coy, saying, “It’s got to come to a conviction.”

King is a favorite among conservatives in western Iowa and his endorsement would be seen as a boon to any Republican candidate.

During the event, King played both pheasant and hunter, playing coy with candidates to avoid proffering an endorsement, even as he bolstered his influence and campaign fund.

Asked about his criteria for endorsement, King said he is seeking a “full spectrum constitutional conservative,” someone who shares his views about the hypocrisy of the Obama Administration and the disappointing track of the Supreme Court.

“Somebody that understands what the Supreme Court is doing to our country, somebody that understands what the President of the United States is doing to erode our constitution and our rule of law, somebody that will take us to a balanced budget, defend our nation and rebuild our military,” King expectorated.

Even more importantly, the nation needs somebody with the confidence to reinstate America’s place in the world, King said.

At the event, King also admitted to voting for Paul Ryan for House Speaker, despite having endorsed Daniel Webster in the build up to the vote.

The events were split over Saturday and Sunday, with two hunts each day.

If candidates hoped to bag King’s endorsement, their expectations were unmet. King has yet to throw his weight behind any of the candidates. However, it is expected he will make a selection soon as the season wears on towards Feb. 1.

At the event, one hunter actually quoted Charlton Heston’s quip; and believe me, you couldn’t have taken that gun from his cold, dead hands.

When asked how many pheasants he’d “bagged”, Santorum replied: “Three. I shot three. The limit’s three. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it,” after which he pivoted and slipped on his sunglasses, laughing as he went.

For videos from the event, click on the follow links, Warning, they are fairly graphic.

“Consider the Pheasant”

“Pheasant 2”

If the democratic process annoys or confuses you: consider what it did to the pheasants.
Keep tuned in, more to follow.

ENDS.

  

  Steve King slinging that rifle

Notes from everyman’s land: Iowa and the Republicans No. 1, GOP rally in Orange City.

By Daniel Mollenkamp

ORANGE CITY — Four Republican candidates met in Northwest Iowa Friday evening, with din from Wednesday’s Republican debate still audible, in a gathering of the Cherokee, Lyon, O’Brien, Osceola, Plymouth and Sioux County Republican parties.

Senator Marco Rubio, Governor Chris Christie, Carly Fiorina and former Senator Rick Santorum pitched their presidencies to a crowd of more than 500, at the Bultman Center on the campus of Northwestern College in Orange City.

The result was fairly standard: there was several calls to defund to Planned Parenthood, reiterations of American exceptionalism and talk of business and family.

Several students associated with the democratic party afterwards gave their impression of the event. There was, one of them said, nearly 30 mentions of Clinton.

Those mentions ran the usual gamut, from calls to deny Clinton her “coronation” to Fiorina, who argued that if she were the Republican nominee, Clinton would not be able to campaign on her womanhood, but would be reduced to her record.

Rubio, who very recently received the backing of billionaire Paul Singer, spoke about the American dream and called for a repeal of Obamacare. He also called for an end to the “stigma” on vocational education, saying “a welder makes a lot more than a philosopher.”

Fiorina promised to make two phone calls upon election; the first to Netanyahu, shoring up American-Israeli ties, the second to Ali Khamenei, scraping the Iran deal in favor of a tougher and altogether more Republican one. The rest of her speech centered, alternatively, on a need for simpler tax code, more emphasis on small business and her business acumen (the opening story was a long exposition of her involvement with the “Christian-based” microfinance organization Opportunity International, which ended by reaffirming the pride found in working).

Christie brought up his vetoing of the  New Jersey budget tax hikes in “very blue” state, hoping to secure his Republican credentials. In his words, “balancing the budget means making the government smaller.”

Santorum, for his part, argued that low poll numbers mean little.  After all, Santorum reminded the audience, he has played the underdog before, and won Iowa doing it.

In a sense, just because something is political, it is not necessarily news.

The standout news of Friday was report that U.S. special forces will be deployed on the ground in Kurdish-controlled northern Syria to assist Kurdish and Arab forces fight Daesh (more commonly known as the ISIS).

However, by the time the fat person wailed, it was clear that none of the candidates present had incorporated this as a substantive part of their pitch, as one might have expected. Though, Fiorina mentioned it before the event in front of the press and Santorum responded to it at a meet n’ greet in Le Mars in the afternoon.

Stay tuned, junkies. There’s more to come.
ENDS.